Should the state government be blamed for the violence?

What happened?

On July 8, at least 15 people were killed and several injured during the Panchayat poll elections in West Bengal. There were instances of looting of ballot boxes and destruction of ballot papers. Consequently, the State Election Commission (SEC) declared voting in certain districts void on Sunday. Repolling was conducted on Monday in over 600 booths. As per the latest figures, the current death toll in the state is 20.

Why does it matter?

Instances of political violence in Bengal aren’t uncommon. Reportedly, 80 people died in the 2003 panchayat elections, 45 in 2008, and 31 in 2013. The toll increased to 75 in 2018. Despite the foresight, the authorities failed to contain violence in this year’s Panchayat elections.

What are the arguments from both sides?

Side 1: The state government is trying its best:

• Central forces: The Calcutta High Court ordered the deployment of 822 companies of Central forces or nearly 70,000 personnel. The SEC complained that they were not given adequate information for properly deploying the forces. The forces even failed to reach on time, and in many places, they weren’t deployed at all.

• History of violence: Violence has been an integral part of electoral politics, especially in rural areas. The Naxal uprising of the 1970s and the Tehbhaga movement (1946-47) have resulted in strong rural mobilisation. Past panchayat polls under both the current Trinamool Congress and the previous Communist Party of India (Marxist) government have witnessed significant levels of violence.

Side 2: The state government is not doing enough:

• Inaction: The ruling party in Bengal benefit from the rural political violence. Violence has been used as a tool to win elections. Reportedly, the TMC has encouraged violence and used it to weaken the Opposition. The government could’ve taken several measures to prevent the violence if it wanted. For instance, it could’ve implemented specific laws around electoral violence.

• Opposing the forces: TMC Minister Shashi Panja admitted that the state government was against requesting the deployment of the Central forces. It believed the Bengal police was competent enough to ensure free and fair elections. This short-sightedness on the government’s part shows that it hadn’t assessed the situation properly beforehand.

What’s next?

The BJP has set up a four-member committee to probe poll violence. The delegation will visit the violence-affected areas on July 11. Meanwhile, the political blame game continues between the ruling TMC and the Opposition. The poll results will be announced on July 11.

If you want to learn more about this topic, I made a video. Watch here!

Is Yuan Taking Over Global Trade?

What happened?

On July 3, reports emerged that Indian oil refineries have begun paying for some oil imports from Russia in Chinese Yuan. This move came after the Russian suppliers reportedly refused to accept payment in Indian Rupees, citing the currency’s high ‘volatility’. Sources suggest that the state-owned Indian Oil Corporation and at least two of India’s three private refineries were involved in Yuan transactions.

Why does it matter?

The international sanctions imposed on Russia have caused the country to be dropped from dollar and euro-based financial networks. Consequently, Russia and its customers have been searching for alternatives for dollars to settle payments.

In May 2023, Russian oil accounted for about 40% of India's crude imports. Previously, the two countries had agreed to establish a Rupee-Ruble mechanism. However, the negotiations fell through and India was forced to take the Yuan route. Observers believe that the rise in Yuan payments for foreign trade results from China’s efforts to internationalise its currency and provide it as a viable alternative to US Dollars.

What are the arguments from both sides?

Side 1: Yuan will take over foreign trade:

• De-dollarisation efforts: China has been determined to elevate the yuan's status as a global currency and has made substantial efforts to achieve this goal in recent years. For instance, it has established agreements with countries such as Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Laos and Brazil to use the yuan for cross-border transactions, replacing the dollar.

• Effects of sanctions: As a consequence of the sanctions against Russia, Yuan has replaced the dollar as the most-traded currency in the country. Russia has begun receiving payments in Yuan for coal and gas from countries like China and India. Moreover, Russian companies like Rosneft have issued bonds denominated in yuan.

• Dollar’s dominance questioned: The use of the dollar in economic warfare and the US’s error-prone economic policies have been eroding the world’s trust in the currency. For instance, between November 2022 and January 2023, the nominal broad dollar index fell almost by 7% (the dollar index is a measure of the dollar's value relative to other major currencies).

Side 2: Yuan will NOT take over foreign trade:

• Gradual process: Although Yuan’s share in global trade has doubled in the last decade, it’s still only at 2.5%. In contrast, the dollar accounts for 43% of global trade payments. Therefore, economists suggest it will take Yuan decades to displace the dollar.

• Roadblocks: The Chinese government has a tight grip on the country’s financial markets. Such control and limited transparency make Yuan unfavourable for free market flows. Moreover, China has been accused of devaluing Yuan to boost the country’s exports. The devaluation prompts foreign buyers to purchase more Chinese products. Such instances of manipulation erode the market’s trust in Yuan.

• Trust in Dollar: The dollar has been the global trade currency for decades. Moreover, the dollar is also the world’s dominant reserve currency (a currency held by governments and institutions as a backup. It’s used for settling debts and carrying out international transactions). Despite economic blows to the US, markets worldwide trust the dollar significantly. The open market favours the dollar’s growth even more. Therefore, it’s impossible for Yuan to compete with the dollar.

What’s next?

The reports suggesting that the Indian oil refineries have paid in Yuan are based on the disclosure of the sources closely connected to the trade. There has been no official confirmation in this regard yet. Due to India’s strained relationship with China, experts have suggested that UAE’s Dirham be used as the third currency in Russia-India trade.

DRDO Scientist Honey-trapped by a Pakistani Spy

What happened?

On July 7, Pradeep Kurulkar, a senior scientist at Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), appeared in a special ATS court. He was arrested in May for violating security protocols by sharing classified information. He was reportedly honey-trapped by a Pakistani woman who went by the alias of Zara Dasgupta.

Why does it matter?

In his conversation with the woman, Kurulkar is said to have shared crucial information about the BrahMos Missile, Agni-6 Missile, Rustam Project, Rafale jets, etc. If gone into the wrong hands, this information can be used to threaten India’s security. Moreover, this incident raises questions about the fallibility of senior officials with access to confidential information about the nation’s security.

What are the arguments from both sides?

Side 1: Honey-trapping threatens national security:

• Compromising Sensitive Information: Between 2015-2017, India reported five honey-trapping cases in Armed Forces. Several such cases have emerged in the past few years as well. In most cases, the victims were asked by Pakistani ISI women agents to reveal sensitive information about army deployments and military plans.

• Sabotaging operations: The sensitive information can be used by enemy nations to sabotage India’s security operations. If gone to an extreme level, the victim’s judgement and decision-making can also be manipulated.

Side 2: Honey-trapping does NOT threaten national security: This argument has no other side. The fact that not every security official has access to highly confidential information limits the impact of honey-trapping. However, every small piece of leaked information can be used disastrously.

What’s next?

The Indian army has taken serious note of the incident and has decided to ramp up its efforts to prevent such instances in the future. The ATS court has withheld its judgement till July 21 to enable the prosecution and defence to argue on additional points regarding the ATS’s plea to conduct scientific tests on Kurulkar.

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