What do Karnataka Results Mean For 2024 Lok Sabha Elections?

What happened?

The Congress won a decisive victory in the Karnataka Assembly elections, securing 135 seats out of 224 and ousting the BJP from power. The BJP, which was ruling the state since 2019, suffered a significant setback and could win only 66 seats. The JD(S), a former ally of Congress, was reduced to 19 seats. According to reports, Siddaramaiah is likely to be the new chief minister of Karnataka, as he has the backing of the majority of Congress MLAs and the party’s high command. 

Why does it matter?

The Karnataka results show a rare win for Congress, which has been losing in many states and at the center. The party won across regions and communities, including the Lingayats who usually back the BJP. The results expose BJP’s failure to retain its only stronghold in southern India. It also failed to use Modi’s popularity and campaign. Additionally, the results could significantly affect the 2024 national elections as they could alter the political dynamics and equations at the national level.

What are the arguments?

Will have no impact on BJP in the 2024 elections:

• Despite losing in MP, Rajasthan, and Chattisgarh, the BJP won the 2019 national elections by a considerable margin. The party has Modi’s charisma and national appeal to overcome regional losses.

• Karnataka results show anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction with BJP's state leadership, especially ex-CM Yediyurappa. BJP can still recover its lost ground by addressing the local issues and projecting a new face for the state.

• BJP still stands strong as the state has shown a different preference for Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha since the 1990s. Also, the results don't necessarily signify a Congress revival, as the party grapples with the lack of a clear strategy and credible national leadership.

Will have an impact on BJP in the 2024 elections:

• The results show that the BJP’s dominance in southern India could be waning, as it has lost the only state it was ruling in the region. The party may find it difficult to expand its footprint in the south, which accounts for 130 out of 543 Lok Sabha seats.

• The results reveal the BJP's susceptibility to challenges in governance, corruption, and development. This also means that the party cannot rely on its Hindutva card alone and must deliver on promises and tackle issues posed by COVID-19, economic slowdown, and farmers' protests.

• The Karnataka results could embolden the Congress and opposition parties, aiding their challenge against BJP's dominance. Additionally, Congress could leverage its Karnataka victory to strengthen its national position.

What next?

The Karnataka results set the stage for an intriguing political contest leading up to the 2024 general elections. Congress must consolidate its victory in Karnataka and prepare for upcoming state elections, particularly in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana. These states offer opportunities to challenge the BJP or form alliances with regional parties. On the other hand, BJP must recover from its setback in Karnataka and realize that the Modi magic might not be enough for it to win state elections.

What is happening in Manipur?

What happened?

Manipur is in the middle of violent protests. The tribals of Manipur are unhappy about two issues: the Meitei community’s demand for Scheduled Tribes status and the court order to evict Kuki tribals from forest lands. They are concerned that these moves will jeopardize their rights and privileges as STs. The violence between the groups has claimed more than 70 innocent lives. The state has shut down internet and public gatherings in some districts. Over 5,800 people from Manipur fled to Mizoram to seek shelter. The violence has also impacted over 4000 school students, threatening their future.

Why does it matter?

News reports indicate that the violence, which began on May 3, 2021, has resulted in the deaths of at least 70 individuals, with over 200 others injured. The riots have also led to displaced thousands of people and significant property damage caused by mobs. In response, the government has implemented a curfew, suspended internet access, and deployed security forces to restore order.

It’s a situation that is impacting lakhs of Manipuris and threatens to destabilize the region.

What are the arguments?

Why Meiteis want ST status:

• The Meitis are demanding ST status to preserve their community and save their ancestral land, tradition, culture, and language.

• The Meitis argue that they were recognised as a tribe before the merger of Manipur with India in 1949 but lost their identity after the merger.

• The Meitis feel marginalised and victimised without constitutional protections and face difficulties due to large-scale illegal immigration by Myanmar and Bangladeshi nationals.

Why tribals oppose ST status for Meiteis:

• The tribal groups say the Meiteis have a demographic and political advantage besides being more advanced than them academically and in other aspects.

• They feel the ST status to the Meiteis would lead to loss of job opportunities and allow them to acquire land in the hills and push the tribals out.

• Tribal communities also fear that Meiteis may take over their land resources if they are given ST status.

What next?

The situation has been brought under control by the state and the Centre. The police have arrested several suspects and seized weapons and explosives from them. The army and paramilitary forces have conducted flag marches and aerial surveillance to maintain law and order. CM Biren Singh met Home Minister Amit Shah and briefed him about the situation. He has also announced a high-level inquiry against government officials who may have been involved in the violence.

The state has promised to consult all stakeholders before deciding on the ST status issue. The tribal student body has called off its blockade after meeting with the CM and other officials. But the situation is still tense and uncertain. The Centre has also intervened and assured it will take a balanced view.

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